Ask any punter about how they predict the outcome of football matches, and you will get the same answer over and over again – study relevant statistics. There’s no way around it, no shortcuts that are worth taking.
But there is also another important layer of making insightful predictions because the cold hard facts can’t always tell you everything. Along with the data, it’s important to consider variables of the human factor of football.
Are Betting Strategies Worth it?
We understand that many football predictions go hand in hand with betting and finding better opportunities like attractive FA trophy odds. To that end, everyone should have a betting strategy, one that has been created out of researching stats.
We don’t mean famous strategies like the Martingale or Fibonacci. Those are worth avoiding because they ideally need a bottomless pit of betting funds. Instead, create your betting strategy based on your preferred way of studying football.
Work with your preferred betting markets and use that in turn, to dictate the area of statistical analysis that you do. Then stick to a staking plan, just a small percentage of your bankroll for every bet.
Also, be proactive with your betting strategy. Constantly evaluate how things are working out. Keep a record of all wagers to refer back to them to try and spot trends where things are going right or wrong.
Look Beyond the Stats
Statistics are great. Football betting predictions should be based on them, regardless of what market and bet type you are looking for. Stats are tremendous guideposts into what is likely to unfold on the pitch.
You can look for head-to-head records, current form, streaks, goalscoring stats, timing of goals scored and a lot more. The stats are out there online and most are quick, easy and free to grab as well.
But what the stats can’t tell you are some more nuanced human factors like the importance of a game, team line-ups, or a manager tweaking things to some unfamiliar tactics to try and negate a particular opposing threat. Even playing conditions, the bearing of match scheduling and what mood the referee is in are big variables.
An example is a relegation battle fixture that will likely lead to a cautious, defensive game where goals could be at a premium, despite both teams having struggles with keeping clean sheets.
Keep a Narrow Focus
One technique for forecasting football matches is to keep things narrow. Don’t spread yourself too thin by trying to analyse every single facet of a game. Stick to a few important basics like home and away form, goals and defensive records.
Absorb statistics, but if you spread yourself too thin, then you just aren’t going to get enough of a direct, goal-oriented outcome. Along with keeping areas of stats dialled in, similarly don’t look at 10 different football leagues.
Different football leagues have different trends, some lower-scoring than others for example. Stick to one league and get extremely familiar with it.
Open Mind
Keep an open mind when looking at pundit insights, and even free betting tips. Don’t just shut down what other people are saying because it contradicts what you think. You don’t have to agree with others of course and all predictions should be based on your conclusions. However, be open-minded enough to look at information with reasoning because it may highlight something important about a match that you may have missed.
In conclusion, there are many things to factor in for football predictions. Be your own person and don’t fall into the trap of just following along with consensus predictions. That is not going to help you learn the ins and outs of forecasting. Do your research and understand why you have settled on a conclusion, which is especially important when it comes to betting.
